Imagine a typical morning in your region: parents are heading to work, children are going to school, and businesses are opening their doors, in much that same way as they have for decades. Yet beneath the surface, changes in our climate, technology, demography and geopolitics are reshaping our world at a rapid pace. Regional development agencies (RDAs) must respond to these shifts to strengthen competitiveness and seek to turn these unpreceded challenges and uncertainties into opportunities.
Regional revelations
Foresight, the practice of imagining and preparing for future scenarios, is an important strategic tool. While no one can predict or control the future, foresight uses systematic approaches to imagine, design and strategically act on desired futures. At the same time, foresight helps to better understand the changes that are unfolding and to anticipate and prepare for unexpected disruptions.
Despite growing interest in foresight within the public sector, its application at the local levels remains limited. However, that is beginning to change, with regions and cities setting up policy labs to explore and prepare for plausible futures, integrating foresight into local planning, and using foresight techniques to understand the impact of policy decisions on future generations.
Well-being in Wales
One that is leading the way is the Welsh Assembly Government (United Kingdom), which is integrating foresight into the design of its regional policies. In doing so, they are ensuring that policies not only respond to current needs, but also protect the interests of future generations. The legal basis is provided by the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015, while the long-term strategy Cymru Can was presented by the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales in 2023.
To support implementation, the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales has expanded the Future Generations Leadership Academy and international programme to enable learning exchange between Welsh public bodies, global policy makers, and other stakeholders. The Office works closely with public bodies to set meaningful well-being targets and collaborates with Audit Wales to develop a robust monitoring system. This approach continues to drive progress towards net-zero and nature-positive goals, food system transformation, and the integration of well-being goals into business models.
The Future Generations Act remains unique legislation of its kind in the world and inspired the UN Pact for the Future, which was adopted by the UN General Assembly on 22 September 2024.
In the Basque country (Spain), the Basque Institute of Competitiveness carried out regional strategic foresight that led to the development for shared vision for Basque competitiveness in 2040. The process started in 2021 and it was driven by two specific needs: the need to create a better future for the next generation by taking a proactive approach, and the need to look beyond economics, directing competitiveness towards inclusive and sustainable prosperity.
Japan’s Future Design movement has been inspired by traditional cultural values, embracing the concept of seventh-generation decision-making. The approach was developed to empower residents to discuss and design long-term plans for their towns and cities, with the goal of promoting fairness and justice for both the present and future generations.
One of the earliest examples was in Yahaba Town, where residents role-played as future generations to consider the long-term impact of policies on infrastructure, the environment, and natural resources. Following this model, Toyama City adopted a “compact city” approach to reduce urban sprawl and improve public transportation for future accessibility. Matsumoto City used Future Design principles to redesign public services and infrastructure, particularly in healthcare and education, to address the needs of an aging population.
In response to member demand at the organisation’s 30th anniversary in 2022, the European Association of Development Agencies (EURADA) launched a Strategic Foresight Working Group in 2022, led by the Regional Development Agency of the Region of Murcia. This group focusses on mapping foresight initiatives, exploring regional approaches and creating valuable knowledge exchange. The group has worked with various institutions, including the OECD, the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Committee of the Regions, to share information on territorial approaches and tools.
Mapping RDAs’ needs and interests
The OECD Trento Centre for Local Development surveyed 40 Regional development agencies (RDAs) from 19 countries to find out what they know and think about foresight.
Foresight is seen as very valuable by 73% of respondents who believe that foresight can significantly improve organisation´s planning and decision-making processes and increase their region’s resilience to external shocks.
The survey also shed light on the key skills required for foresight. Participants highlighted the importance of several key competencies, including creativity, open-mindedness, strategic thinking, data analysis, effective communication, relevant experience and the ability to work with others.
Yet too many RDAs lack the resources – the time, money or manpower – to engage in foresight. In particular, RDAs lack skills in data management and analysis, understanding of relevant methods and approaches, and more general skills such as leadership and the ability to translate insights into action.
Building capacities in foresight and anticipation
The OECD’s Regional Outlook 2023 emphasises the importance of strengthening the foresight and anticipation skills of subnational officials. So we asked ourselves: how can we bridge the knowledge gap? To this end, the OECD Trento Centre for Local Development partnered with EURADA and two Dutch development agencies: ROM Utrecht and Oost Netherlands on a capacity building project: “Navigating the Future of Regional Development”.
Participants engaged in futures thinking and explored the application of foresight and anticipation methods. They envisioned desirable and plausible futures by analysing trends and potential uncertainties that could affect their regions, imagining different scenarios and possible outcomes. During the foresight workshop on “Futures of Regional Development Agencies in 2050“, participants gained practical experience in framing, scanning and visioning techniques.
Participants outlined a vision of a digitally transformed ecosystem that is connected and strategically aligned. This vision emphasised the need for change in how RDAs operate, to promote interdisciplinary collaboration, organisational agility, a culture of anticipation, technological integration, and a commitment to continuous learning. In addition, competencies, skills and intangible resources – such as digital literacy, AI skills, data analytics, creativity, adaptability, analytical and critical thinking, and problem-solving skills were identified as essential for the future of RDAs.
Foresight going forward
In a changing world, governments at all levels must be prepared for what lies ahead. For subnational governments, who are often on the front line in responding to major shifts and shocks, foresight tools could be just what is needed. Its participatory, generative and immersive approaches can help them anticipate and adapt, forging a new pathway for their region. Governments, peers, and international organisations must support them in that effort.
Katerina Ciampi Stancova is a Policy Analyst at the OECD Trento Centre for Local Development. Prior to working at the OECD, Katerina worked as a Scientific Officer at the European Commission, Joint Research Centre. She has also been a visiting scholar at Georgetown University, Washington DC, and Stockholm University. Katerina holds a PhD in Public Policy and Sustainability from Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies in Pisa and Master’s in Foresight from University of Trento.
Roberta Dall'Olio has been the Director of Eurada, the European Network of Regional Development Agencies, since November 2022. She is an expert in integrated strategic projects for territory, attractiveness, and participation, and has extensive experience in EU and international cooperation projects. Dall'Olio is a member of various EC working groups and the OECD LEED Programme Directing Committee.