Over the past 15 years, Europe’s cities have grown by nearly 12 million people. Yet while Europe’s large cities have expanded by around 6.5%, smaller cities have shrunk by 1.7%.
There is an East-West divide too – Western cities have been generally growing, while many in Eastern Europe are losing residents. This uneven growth raises an important question – what does it mean to have the Right to Stay in Europe’s shrinking cities?
Europe’s growing divide: large cities thrive while smaller and eastern cities shrink
Population change in EU Functional Urban Areas (2009 – latest available year). Bubble size indicates city population; blue shows population growth, red shows population decline.
In some cities in Europe, demographic decline and industrial shocks have eroded the economic base that once sustained their communities. It’s resulted in city centres filled with shuttered shops, shrinking classrooms and the rise of geographies of discontent.
For young people in these places, the promise of opportunity has often meant having to leave home behind, even when they might have preferred to stay. But the Right to Stay is more than just the right to remain physically – it’s the right to have a decent livelihood, a quality of life and a pride in the place one calls home.
Giving citizens the Right to Stay in the city they choose and reversing population decline is not just a moral imperative – it also helps makes public services more efficient, reduces pressure on growth poles, and prevents the waste of human potential that comes when people must leave their city in order to live well.
Moving itself also carries high economic and social costs. Studies estimate the total cost of relocation can be between USD 220 000 and USD 958 000 – several times an individual’s annual income once direct expenses (transport, legal fees, housing costs), lost earnings and time, and the psychological toll of leaving social networks have been accounted for. These costs underline that the Right to Stay is not only about equity, but also economic efficiency and wellbeing.
Turning points: how cities reversed the trend
While breaking cycles of outmigration can be challenging, it is not impossible. Cities that have “learned to grow again” often share common approaches – investment in people, a clear long-term vision and a renewal of confidence in their city. The examples of Glasgow (UK), Greifswald (Germany) and Oulu (Finland) show different paths to the same end, where local leaders turned the pressures of population decline into a catalyst for renewal to restore economic vitality and residents’ belief in their cities.
Glasgow, UK – Rebranding a post-industrial giant
In the second half of the 20th century Glasgow lost nearly half its population – around 500 000 people – as shipyards closed and residents were relocated to peripheral estates outside city boundaries. By the late 1980s, the city was marked by derelict land, unemployment and deep deprivation.
As a response, the city began deliberately rebranded itself through culture, design and higher education. Receiving the European City of Culture award in 1990 was a major turning point in Glasgow’s renewal – bringing pride back to the city and providing a springboard for investments in the arts, tourism and public space. The city has built on that legacy with a focus on community wealth building, local skills and inclusive growth. Today, Glasgow’s median age is 6 years below the UK average, its GDP per capita exceeds national levels and new business creation has outpaced the country as a whole.
Greifswald, Germany – Anchoring renewal in knowledge
Greifswald, in north-eastern Germany, faced a different challenge. After reunification, the collapse of East Germany’s industrial base triggered mass out-migration to the West, hollowing out its population and economy.
The city anchored its regeneration strategy on one its greatest assets – its university, among the oldest in Germany. This became a stabilising force for the city and surrounding regions, drawing students, researchers and new businesses to the area. Urban renewal projects restored the historic centre, while investments in cycling infrastructure and public space improved city life.
And today Greifswald’s population is growing – up nearly 5% in the decade to 2023, with nearly one in five inhabitants between 18 and 30 years old. Their experience underscores how small cities can thrive through a focus on quality of life and knowledge-based development.
Oulu, Finland – Managing decline before it scarred the economy
Meanwhile, other cities escape decline not through recovery, but rather pre-emptive resilience. Oulu, in northern Finland, faced a major shock in 2009 when Nokia’s downsizing wiped out a third of its local electronics jobs – around 3.5% of total employment.
The city responded quickly. Local leaders brought together government, business, and universities to coordinate a response. They created BusinessOulu to channel funding toward new industries and startups while using education programmes to retrain laid-off workers.
Remarkably, only a few hundred workers left the city. Many moved into emerging tech and service sectors, helped by Oulu’s existing base of digital expertise. Fifteen years later, Oulu’s industrial structure is more diversified and resilient with Nokia still playing a role, but as part of a broader, more diversified innovation ecosystem.
Realising the Right to Stay
As the experiences of Glasgow, Greifswald and Oulu show, urban population loss can be turned around by investing in people first, through education, skills and inclusion, alongside a long-term vision and pragmatic renewal. Their success highlights how regeneration is not merely about reversing decline but also about restoring confidence in place – that a city’s best days still lie ahead. Realising the Right to Stay calls for policies that rebalance prosperity across places and make staying a real choice, be it through ensuring access to quality jobs, decent housing and vibrant neighbourhoods across every corner of Europe.
Find out more about the OECD’s Transforming Places project to answer the question ‘what will it take to build inclusive pathways for economic and social transformation in left behind communities?’. Also, take a look at the OECD’s Regions in Industrial Transition 2023 to discover new approaches to persistent problems.
Elizabeth Doherty is an Economist in the Inclusive Growth in Cities Unit at the OECD, where she where she analyses economic strategies to strengthen local prosperity and reduce multidimensional urban inequalities. She previously worked for the UK Government, including in the Growth and Places Analysis Team at the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government. She has also worked as an Economics and Climate Associate in Amsterdam. Elizabeth holds an MSc in Economics from UCL and a BSc in Economics and Politics from the University of Bristol.