2024 is set to be the hottest year on record. It is also likely to be the first to breach the unwelcome milestone of 1.5-degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels —a critical benchmark scientists had not expected to reach until mid-century when the Paris Agreement was signed.
Some regions are feeling the heat more than others – putting lives and jobs at risk. The OECD’s 2024 Regions and Cities at a Glance report presents new climate data to help policy makers understand local climate risks – and underscore the urgent need for action.
2024 – On track to become the hottest year, following 2023’s record-breaking heat
The climate crisis is accelerating, with 2024 projected to become the hottest year in recorded history. According to the EU space programme Copernicus, the global-average temperature for the past 12 months (November 2023 – October 2024) was an estimated 1.62°C above pre-industrial average.
Records also tumbled in 2023, a year in which every month from June through to December broke previous temperature records and many OECD countries and regions experienced some of their hottest years in history. However, impacts were far from uniform even within countries. The regions within countries most affected by warming in 2023 saw average temperature increases 0.7°C higher than the least impacted areas, compared to the 1981-2010 baseline. In some countries the gap is much higher: Canada’s Northwest Territories experienced a temperature rise of 3.2°C compared to 1981-2010, while Nova Scotia recorded an increase of 1.4°C.
Polar and Cold Regions: A Canary in the Coal Mine
The alarm bells are ringing loudest in polar and cold regions, where warming is accelerating. In 2023, temperatures in these areas climbed nearly by 2°C – more than twice the increase observed in OECD arid regions. In 2023 alone, polar regions lost 17 icing days, while cold regions lost 9 compared to the 1981-2010 period. These changes are already triggering significant consequences. Melting ice sheets and glaciers are driving rising sea levels, increasing the risk of coastal flooding.
Even more alarming is the thawing of permafrost—frozen soil that has locked away vast amounts of methane and carbon dioxide for millennia. As permafrost melts, these potent greenhouse gases are released, further intensifying global warming. This rapid warming is a major concern, as these areas span over 40% of the OECD countries’ land area and play a critical role in regulating the planet’s climate.
The outlook is troubling. Under a low-emissions scenario, polar region temperatures could rise by 3°C by mid-century, compared to 1981-2010. In a high-emissions scenario, that increase could soar to 4.3°C, compounding the risks for ecosystems, infrastructure, and global climate stability.
Extreme Heat in Arid and Tropical Regions
While cold regions thaw quickly, arid and tropical regions are facing a surge in extreme heat. In 2023, OECD arid regions endured 11 more hot days (when the maximum temperature is higher than 35°C) compared to the 1981-2010 baseline, while tropical regions experienced an additional 8 days.
The trend isn’t slowing down. By 2041-2060, tropical regions could face a staggering 40 to 60 extra hot days each year, with arid regions bracing for an additional 20 to 30 days. Again, there are wide variations within countries: by 2041-60 Australia’s Northern Territory could see an alarming increase of 74 extra hot days annually compared to the baseline period, while Tasmania remains unaffected.
These spikes in heat carry serious consequences for public health, daily life, and productivity. Prolonged heat waves are linked to a rise in heat-related illnesses, higher mortality rates, and mounting pressure on already stretched healthcare systems. The impacts don’t stop there. Labour markets in these regions are also feeling the heat. Already by 2015, 13% of outdoor workers in European OECD countries and the United States were facing extreme heat for at least half their working time – at a cost to their health and productivity. Rates are highest in Türkiye (26%), Spain (25%), and Greece (22%).
A Call to Act
The findings in this year’s Regions and Cities at a Glance report makes one thing clear: there’s no time to waste. Climate change is no longer a distant threat – it’s already reshaping regions and cities across the globe, with impacts expected to grow in both frequency and intensity in the next decades.
The path forward lies in urgent, locally-driven climate adaptation strategies. This means reimagining urban planning to make cities more sustainable, fortifying public health systems to handle climate-related challenges, and investing in resilient infrastructure that can withstand extreme weather events. OECD’s report on A Territorial Approach to Climate Action and Resilience, launched at COP28 last year, provides a comprehensive policy framework and practical examples to support countries, regions and cities.
But these efforts must go further-and faster. Strengthening and accelerating climate action is essential. The stakes couldn’t be higher, and the time to act is now.
Explore the 2024 edition of Regions and Cities at a Glance to learn more about how we can prepare for the challenges ahead.
See also the OECD report, A Territorial Approach to Climate Action and Resilience, launched at COP28 last year, which provides a comprehensive policy framework and practical examples to support countries, regions and cities.
